Quant Yeti
Long periods of suppressed volatility are followed by sudden spikes in the VIX. This bipolar price action is the result of (gamma) hedging activity by market makers (dealers). We use the gamma positioning of these dealers to issue long/short signals for the S&P 500 (SPX) and volatility products like UVXY. We also trade gold (GLD) and silver (SLV).
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Please read the disclaimer before signing up to any of our services.
The Bottom (March 23, 2020)
There are multiple reasons why I believe the market has bottomed. For details, please watch the video. To get notified in real-time when we put on a trade, fill out the form above.
The Bailout (March 20, 2020)
The massive bailout that is coming will likely push gold prices higher. In this video I outline a strategy that has the potential to double your money within 1 month.
Salami Crash: Update (March 4, 2020)
The S&P 500 (SPX) bounced back to 3100. Is it time to reshort again? What will it take for gold miners to bottom? These are the questions I am trying to answer in this video.
More Pain (Feb 27, 2020)
The market is likely underestimating the economic consequences of the coronavirus outbreak. This is why I believe there is more pain to come... For details, watch the video.
Salami Crash Warning (Feb 23, 2020)
The odds that the S&P 500 will see an aggressive move lower is very high. Potential downside = 10% or so. More details in the video.
Warning Sign (Feb 21, 2020)
This is a daily chart of the VIX. It shows how volatily spikes when gamma positioning goes from positive to negative as it did today (Feb 21, 2020). When market makers (MM) have negative gamma exposure they are forced to sell into weakness and buy into strength, causing outsized directional moves. When MM are long gamma, they sell into strength and buy dips which suppresses volatility.
Why have markets become so bipolar?
Many institutions require passive income to meet their obligations. The low interest rate environment forces these institutions to generate additional yield by selling massive quantities of at-the-money options. Since there is no natural buyer to absorb this selling activity, market makers take the other side of the trade which puts them long gamma. Market makers then need to hedge that risk, so they buy dips and sell rallies. This is now the "natural state" of the market and it causes the S&P 500 to grind higher. The situation gets turned upside down when... (additional info in the video).
Subscription Options
We have a solution for all your trading needs. Choose the market that best fits your trading style.
Quant Yeti (6 months)
$699
FOR 6 MONTHS
real-time alerts
sent to your phone
~10 alerts per month
SPX TVIX JNUG & JDST
Quant Yeti (monthly)
$149
PER MONTH
real-time alerts
sent to your phone
~10 alerts per month
SPX TVIX JNUG & JDST
Quant Yeti (1 year)
$999
FOR 12 MONTHS
real-time alerts
sent to your phone
~10 alerts per month
SPX TVIX JNUG & JDST
Frequently Asked Questions
You will get your life back. Instead of letting the market take you hostage, you get to focus on the things you enjoy. Only when the risk/reward to enter a trade is excellent, the Quant Yeti will notify you on your phone in real-time when it makes sense to enter the market.
Quant Yeti is a software as a service (SAAS) solution that analyzes price action in real-time. When the software recognizes specific patterns, it sends out notifications to subscribers.
The market will test the conviction of bulls and bears alike. Price is often pushed to levels that causes most traders to question their thesis and capitulate, only to see price reverse shortly thereafter.
If that wasn't hard enough, it is also difficult emotionally to let winners ride. The mind plays tricks on us and it reminds us of all the occasions when a profitable trade turned around and become a loser. The emotional investor on our shoulder then tells us to take profit in winners that we should actually hold on to.
Our quant model understands how to differentiate between fakeouts that are only designed to shake out investors and legitimate breakouts which have legs. The Quant Yeti identifies these inflection points and he will alert you in real-time when to enter/exit the market.
Canceling your membership could not be any easier. Simply reply 'stop' to any of the text messages you've received and your subscription will end. If you have a paid subscription, your card will not be charged again.
JNUG is a bullish leveraged ETF on junior gold miners. It is designed to return 3x of the daily performance of GDXJ.
JDST is a 3x leveraged inverse ETF which goes up in price when junior gold miners fall.
Compound returns works both ways and it is the reason why all leveraged ETF's decay over time. That's why it is ill-advised to buy and hold JNUG, JDST or any other leveraged ETF. Drawdowns are the kryptonite of leveraged ETFs because each drawdown makes it harder to get back to even.
To illustrate this, let's assume that GDXJ, the underlying ETF that JNUG is derived from, has a current value of $100. If price drops from $100 to $80 on one day, and then goes back to $100 the following day, the investors who simply kept the position break even.
Here is how JNUG would perform during that scenario. Since JNUG returns 3x the daily performance of GDXJ, it would lose 60% the first day (-20% x 3 = -60%).
Assuming JNUG was also trading at $100, it would lose 60% and therefore drop to $40 a share.
When GDXJ then rallies from $80 back to $100, it is gaining 25% which means JNUG would rise by 75% (25% x 3). The problem is, a 75% rally from $40 will only get JNUG back to $70 because it is rallying from a much lower base (75% of $40 = $30).
In other words, while GDXJ is back to even at $100, JNUG only recovered to $70 and is still down by 30%.
Understanding this concept is very important and it makes trading in and out of leveraged ETF's such as JNUG or JDST paramount. Reality is that timing the market is very difficult for human traders because emotions get in the way of rational decision making.
The Quant Yeti does not have emotions and makes decisions based on an objective analysis of price action.
