Long periods of suppressed volatility are followed by sudden spikes in the VIX. This bipolar price action is the result of gamma hedging activity by market makers (dealers). We use the gamma positioning of these dealers to trade options in the S&P 500 (SPY) and volatility products like UVXY. We also trade options in gold (GLD), silver (SLV), gold miners (GDX) and individual names like Tesla (TSLA).
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To prove that is doesn't require a large budget to get the ball rolling, Quant Yeti funded an account with $4,000 and began trading options on March 31, 2020. Every time we buy or sell an option in this account, we send a text message to our members in real-time with the details of the trade (ticker, quantity, strike price, expiration date, price the order was filled).
As of August 31, 2020, the account has grown from $4,000 to over $100,000 in just 5 months.Show Order History
I bought 200 MGM September 21.50 calls @1.19 today. The speculative position in SPY puts that I bought earlier this week expired worthless today. Net net it was still a profitable week.
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NIO lets you buy a car without owning the battery. This has many advantages. For details, please watch the video.
Zillow (Z) reports earnings on August 6th after the close. I believe there is a chance for a significant move higher. If you want to skip all the macro stuff, 7:30m into the video I explain how I am playing it.
Are these short sellers (Einhorn, Chanos, Spiegel, Johnson) right and TSLA is the ultimate bubble stock or is the recent rally justified? I try to answer this question in the video.
This is the 3rd and final video of the "Blow-Off Top" series. The previous 2 were recorded before the market had topped (S&P 500 topped on June 8th, the Nasdaq on June 10th). In this video I explain that options expiration on June 19th might be the catalyst that triggers the next correction. If you want to skip all the macro stuff, 12:30m into the video, I outline how I will trade it.
I believe the market will likely put in a blow-off top this week. I do not believe this will be THE TOP until the end of time, but odds are we will see a decent-sized pullback from the 3200ish level in the S&P 500. More details in the video.
There is a very interesting dynamic at play in the market right now which could lead to an explosive move higher, followed by a vicious collapse... sounds dramatic? Wait until you've seen the video ;-)
This video addresses the most important questions the market is currently facing: 1) shutdown vs economy, 2) socialism vs capitalsm, 3) inflation vs deflation, 4) V-shape vs U-shape, 5) high vola vs low vola. If you want to skip all the macro stuff, 15m into the video I discuss two different ways to trade it.
The S&P 500 has rallied some 30% off the lows on March 23. I believe it makes sense to sell into strength here. For details, watch the video.
There are multiple reasons why I believe the market has bottomed. For details, please watch the video.
The massive bailout that is coming will likely push gold prices higher. In this video I outline a strategy that has the potential to double your money within 1 month.
The S&P 500 (SPX) bounced back to 3100. Is it time to reshort again? What will it take for gold miners to bottom? These are the questions I am trying to answer in this video.
The market is likely underestimating the economic consequences of the coronavirus outbreak. This is why I believe there is more pain to come... For details, watch the video.
The odds that the S&P 500 will see an aggressive move lower is very high. More details in the video.
This is a daily chart of the VIX. It shows how volatily spikes when gamma positioning goes from positive to negative as it did today (Feb 21, 2020). When market makers (MM) have negative gamma exposure, they are forced to sell into weakness and buy into strength, causing outsized directional moves. When MM are long gamma, they sell into strength and buy dips which suppresses volatility.
Many institutions require passive income to meet their obligations. The low interest rate environment forces these institutions to generate additional yield by selling massive quantities of at-the-money options. Since there is no natural buyer to absorb this selling activity, market makers take the other side of the trade which puts them long gamma. Market makers then need to hedge that risk, so they buy dips and sell rallies. This is now the "natural state" of the market and it causes the S&P 500 to grind higher. The situation gets turned upside down when... (additional info in the video).
To give you an idea what the Yeti is about, I explain the basics of our strategy in this video.